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Soybean and corn futures closed lower on March 9 after the WASDE release. USDA cut its 2021 Brazilian soybean estimate to 127.0 million tonnes from 134.0 million, which was below trade expectations.
Wheat fell 85 cents to $12.01 1/2 in May, and crude oil dropped sharply.
The Brazil soybean cut tightens export supply and supports soybean meal and oil values over time. Prices still closed lower as funds liquidated positions and crude oil fell, so near-term direction was driven by broader selling.
ukragroconsult.comMar 9, 2022After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WASDE cut to Brazil's soybean estimate was below trade expectations, a supply shock relevant to meal.
