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USDA's July balance sheet lowered forecasts for world oilseed production and ending stocks for 2022/23, mainly due to a cut in U.S. soybean production and lower Chinese soybean imports. Global rapeseed production was also reduced, while sunflower production was raised, particularly in Russia.
Lower global oilseed supplies and ending stocks are supportive for oilseed meals and oils, but the report triggered a sharp price drop, indicating bearish market reaction.
ukragroconsult.comJul 15, 2022After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
