
USDA weekly export sales for the week ended August 11 showed soybean sales of 1.4 million metric tons across marketing years, with 779,000 tons of 2022/23 sales going to China. Soybean sales beat trader expectations, while corn sales hit the high end of forecasts and wheat sales fell below the low end.
Soybean sales above expectations, led by Chinese buying, support near-term US soybean prices and export basis. Weak wheat sales point to continued competitive pressure on US wheat.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.