
USDA's FAS in Canberra forecasts Australia's 2022/23 wheat crop at 31 million tonnes, 25% above the 10-year average and 1 million tonnes above the official USDA figure. Eastern states have had above-average rain while Western Australia's soil moisture is below average.
A sizeable Australian wheat crop adds to export competition in Asian markets, which tends to cap prices for Black Sea and US wheat sold into the same buyers.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.