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ABARES expects Australia to harvest about 32.6 million tonnes of wheat in 2021-22, just 2% below the record 33.3 million tonnes of 2020-21. Planted area rose 1% and yields are forecast above long-term averages at about 2.52 t/ha.
A large Australian wheat crop near record levels adds export supply, which typically weighs on world wheat prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.