Analysis-Hawkish Fed and China lockdowns threaten Brazil’s world-beating FX rally

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 31, 2023Brazil's real leads fall in Latam FX, Chile's peso down as copper output drops | Financial Post-3.0%
• Oct 28, 2021Brazil's real drops as larger-than-expected rate hike fails to satisfy | Financial Post+0.7%
• Jul 23, 2020Latam FX weakens, Brazil's real comes off one-month high | Financial Post+1.0%
• Jun 7, 2022Brazilian real hits 2-week low, Chilean peso slips before rate move | Financial Post+6.3%
• Oct 26, 2026Brazil’s real sinks after Lula’s re-election victory | Financial Markets News | Al Jazeera+7.6%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 15, 2022Greenback gains, Aussie tumbles after weak Chinese data – Financial Newsletter-10.8%
• Jan 20, 2023Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence | Financial Post+0.6%
• Jun 22, 2021Why a hawkish US Fed is reverberating around markets | The National-4.1%
• Apr 25, 2022Brazilian real tumbles amid rallying dollar and local tensions-0.5%
• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+7.6%