The US dollar rose and commodity-linked currencies including the Australian dollar fell after weak Chinese industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment data. China's central bank cut key lending rates in a surprise move, and the offshore yuan weakened to its lowest since May.
Weak Chinese demand signals and a firmer dollar weigh on commodity prices, including feed grains and oilseeds that China imports in volume.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Weak Chinese data, a stronger US dollar and a weaker yuan reduce demand for US farm goods and weigh on commodities.