
USDA's Cattle on Feed report showed cattle and calves on feed for slaughter at a record March inventory of 12.2 million head, up 1% from 2021. Drought in the central and western U.S. is pushing cattle into feedlots, with placements in February 9% above 2021.
Heavier feedlot inventories and drought-driven placements add near-term supply pressure on feeder and calf prices, while high feed costs squeeze feeder breakevens and raise corn and meal demand concerns.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.