
USDA May 1 data show large numbers of feeder cattle still held outside feedyards after COVID-19 slowed feeder cattle sales and placements over the past six weeks. The 2020 off-feedyard supply is over 1 million head above the 2016-2019 average.
Held-back feeder supply implies a later surge in placements, which could pressure feeder prices when markets normalize while reducing near-term feedlot corn demand.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.