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The JRC's May ASAP assessment finds production threatened in parts of Southern and East Africa and North Africa by drought and high input prices. Output is expected to fall in Mozambique, Madagascar and Malawi, while South Africa's maize is slightly above average.
About 40 million people in the region are forecast to face crisis-level food insecurity in 2022.
Lower regional maize output and high fertilizer costs increase import demand from the region. The effect on global grain prices is modest given the size of these markets.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euJun 7, 2022After 2,467 past weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
