The euro weakened as a cut in Russian gas supplies pushed European energy prices higher, while the Australian dollar slipped after Australian core inflation of 4.9% came in below some investors' fears. Markets priced an 85.7% chance of a 50 basis point RBA hike and a 75 basis point Fed hike.
Higher European energy costs raise the cost of nitrogen fertilizer and crush operations, while a firmer dollar pressures dollar-denominated grain prices.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.