Euro Hits August Low as Lagarde’s Rates Talk Diverges From Fed

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 12, 2024Euro (EUR USD) Falls to Five-Month Low as ECB-Fed Divergence Looms Large - Bloomberg-0.6%
• Jul 5, 2022Euro Hits 20-Year Low Against Dollar as Markets Slide - The New York Times-3.1%
• Apr 17, 2025VIEW ECB cuts rates again to buffer economy from U.S. tariff hit-0.3%
• Oct 1, 2026Euro slides to 17-month low, hit by rates and inflation mix-1.4%
• May 18, 2026Euro declines as risk aversion, Fed rate hike odds increase-0.2%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 26, 2024Dollar Soars to Fresh 2024 High as Fed Diverges From Major Peers+0.3%
• Apr 12, 2024Euro (EUR USD) Falls to Five-Month Low as ECB-Fed Divergence Looms Large - Bloomberg+1.1%
• Dec 24, 2024Dollar edges higher as Fed rates view sets direction+0.8%
• Jul 5, 2022Euro Hits 20-Year Low Against Dollar as Markets Slide - The New York Times+1.5%
• Oct 1, 2026Euro slides to 17-month low, hit by rates and inflation mix+0.2%