Euro declines as risk aversion, Fed rate hike odds increase

After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Dollar rises, euro slips after ECB rate increase-1.4%
• Jul 20, 2022Dollar rises vs euro as traders eye ECB rate decision-1.2%
• Aug 22, 2022Dollar rises on risk aversion; euro revisits parity-0.4%
• Sep 10, 2026Euro slips as dollar rises after ECB rate hike | MarketScreener-0.8%
• Jun 19, 2026The Euro sinks on its own rate hike-0.6%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Dollar rises, euro slips after ECB rate increase+0.2%
• Oct 28, 2022Gold down 1% as dollar, yields rise on Fed rate-hike bets+1.2%
• Jul 20, 2022Dollar rises vs euro as traders eye ECB rate decision+0.2%
• Aug 22, 2022Dollar rises on risk aversion; euro revisits parity+0.0%
• Jun 16, 2022Fed's rate hike decision further bolsters ringgit-0.7%

After 487 past bullish macro events, WTI moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Dec 13, 2023Gold climbs over 1% after Fed signals end of rate hikes | Reuters+7.2%
• May 26, 2023C$ posts weekly decline as investors eye higher U.S. rates | Financial Post+0.0%
• Apr 17, 2023Indian rupee declines as dollar jumps on Fed policy reassessment - Markets - Business Recorder-5.7%
• May 15, 2026Dollar climbs for fifth straight day as Fed rate hike bets grow-4.4%
• Aug 31, 2023ForexLive European FX news wrap: Euro falls as ECB rate hike bets abate+6.4%