
The dollar rose against major currencies after US producer price data came in line with expectations and raised the chance of a Fed hike. The euro fell after the European Central Bank delivered a 25 basis point rate increase, its second this year aimed at energy-driven inflation from the Iran war.
A stronger dollar and ECB tightening tied to energy inflation raise the cost of energy and dollar-priced feed inputs for European buyers while weighing on dollar commodity prices.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.