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US natural gas futures jumped over 7% to a fresh seven-year high on September 30. The rise followed worries that Europe would not have enough gas in storage for winter, which pushed global prices to record levels and kept demand for US LNG exports strong.
Higher global gas prices widen the arbitrage for US LNG exports and raise energy and fertiliser input costs for grain and feed producers. Energy costs feed through to nitrogen fertiliser and drying costs, supporting feed price levels.
reuters.comSep 30, 2021After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
A US natgas jump to a 7-year high on Sept 30 raised nitrogen feedstock cost and sentiment on the day of the move.
