
European benchmark gas futures traded in a narrow range, with small gains and losses. Prices remain more than 25% above pre-war levels amid concern that European storage is filling too slowly.
Slow storage refill keeps European energy costs elevated, which raises fertilizer and nitrogen production costs and can support urea prices.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.