European natural gas prices eased to €98/MWh after touching €100 the previous session, the highest since December 2022. Rising heating demand and low European gas reserves drive the rally alongside escalation concerns.
High gas prices raise nitrogen fertilizer production costs in Europe, supporting urea and ammonia prices and feeding into grain costs.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.