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The World Bank's natural gas price index rose nearly 4% in November to its highest since December 2023, driven by an 8% jump in the European benchmark. Projections call for European prices to rise in 2025 and US prices to increase significantly.
Upside risks include Middle East conflict, Ukrainian transit uncertainty and colder weather.
The outlook for rising gas prices in 2025 points to higher costs for nitrogen fertilizer and energy-intensive feed processing. Geopolitical risks add upside volatility.
blogs.worldbank.orgPaolo Agnolucci, Nikita MakarenkoDec 17, 2024After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
