
Oil settled up 1.5% at multi-year highs as power shortages in Asia, Europe and the US pushed generators to switch from expensive natural gas to oil. Analysts estimated fuel switching could add 250,000 to 750,000 barrels per day of crude demand.
Fuel switching from gas to oil adds sizable crude demand, reinforcing energy-cost pressure on fertilizer, drying and transport across agriculture.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.