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An index of weekly North American fertilizer prices rose over 11% in the latest week, the largest weekly gain since March. European energy shortages are forcing some nitrogen plants to close or curtail output, and US Corn Belt ammonia prices rose nearly 24%.
Natural gas is the main input for nitrogen fertilizer, so European plant curtailments reduce global nitrogen supply and push up urea and ammonia costs. Higher fertilizer costs raise corn production expenses and could shift planting economics.
bloomberg.comElizabeth ElkinSep 2, 2022After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
