
Fertilizers Europe warns that temporary shutdowns of European nitrogen plants caused by soaring natural gas prices could become permanent. Natural gas typically makes up as much as 80% of nitrogen production costs.
The group says the European Commission's proposed toolbox does not go far enough.
Permanent loss of European nitrogen capacity would tighten global urea and ammonia supply and keep fertiliser prices elevated. Higher input costs will pass through to feed grain production.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.