
Most wholesale nitrogen fertilizer prices rose in August as another wave of European production curtailments passed through the market. NOLA urea barge prices jumped about $100 per short ton at month end, while phosphates and potash declined on ample supply and slower export interest.
Lower European nitrogen output tightens global fertilizer supply, raising input costs for corn and feed grain producers and supporting nitrogen prices into the fall application season.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.