Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped 5.5% to $8.74 a bushel on Monday, and corn rose 2.3% to $6.96. Palm oil futures in Malaysia also rose after Russia pulled out of the deal allowing Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea.
The withdrawal raises fears about Ukrainian grain and sunflower oil exports, supporting wheat, corn and vegetable oil prices. Feed buyers face higher replacement costs for grain-based and oilseed-based feed ingredients.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Confirms broad ag rally on Oct 31 with wheat and corn up and Malaysian palm higher after Russia's exit from the grain deal.