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S&P Global reports that Ukrainian seaborne grain flows fell to their lowest since May because inspections were halted and vessel entries were suspended. Market participants doubt the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be extended before its deadline, and corn exporters are shifting to the Danube.
Risk of no extension and slower Ukrainian exports tightens near-term wheat and corn supply for importers, supporting prices, with Danube routes only partly offsetting the loss.
spglobal.comJul 13, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
