
ING's WASDE review says USDA raised US 2023/24 corn production 23 million bushels to 15.13 billion, with ending stocks up 19 million to 2.2 billion bushels, above the roughly 2.13 billion expected. Global wheat supply tightened on adverse weather in Australia, Canada and the EU.
Heavier US corn stocks are bearish for corn prices, while tighter global wheat supply lifts wheat values and the cost of wheat-based feed.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WASDE raised US corn production and ending stocks above expectations, a bearish supply surprise.