
USDA cut its Argentine corn production estimate from 47 to 40 million tonnes and its soybean forecast by 8 million tonnes to 33 million, due to hot and dry weather. Global 2022/23 corn ending stocks rose to 296.5 million tonnes, above the roughly 293 million expected, as demand cuts offset supply losses.
U.S. corn ending stocks were raised to 1.34 billion bushels.
Argentine supply losses tighten the global soybean balance and support soybean meal prices. Corn is pressured because demand cuts outweigh the supply losses, leaving global stocks above expectations.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.