USDA's April WASDE lowered 2023/24 US corn ending stocks by 50 million bushels to about 2.1 billion, while raising soybean and wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels each. The corn, soybean and wheat stock estimates all came in above trade expectations.
Analysts pointed to higher ethanol demand for corn and a cut in soybean exports.
Higher-than-expected soybean and wheat stocks are bearish for those markets, while the corn cut and stronger ethanol demand give some support to feed corn prices. Feed buyers should expect ample soybean meal and wheat supplies.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.