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Urea prices remained weak on low demand as of early December, with Brazilian bids below $330/tonne CFR and Iranian producers holding over 350,000 tonnes of inventory. Analysts said Q1 2025 could see a rebound if the US returns to the market, and China's potential export restrictions added uncertainty to DAP and MAP.
Weak near-term demand keeps nitrogen costs soft, but expected US buying and possible Chinese export curbs could lift prices in early 2025.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganDec 2, 2024After 23 past neutral trade events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.0%), and +2.8% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
