South African wholesale urea granular prices fell 1.7% week-on-week to R6,934/t and potash granular fell 2.9% to R7,130/t as of January 11. Indian urea tender offers came in at $316/t West Coast and $329/t East Coast, with about 650,000t confirmed against a 800,000t target.
Traders' buying later in the week pushed some spot prices up.
The Indian tender sets a global price floor for urea, and the modest volume suggests limited oversupply, which could support a rebound. Falling potash prices reduce input costs for South African farmers.
After 23 past neutral trade events, UREA moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.0%), and +2.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.