
India has issued a urea tender closing July 8 for shipment by August 27, and China is not expected to enter the market soon. Middle East FOB prices are around USD 330-350/tonne, and Indonesian loadings are delayed by bad weather at Bontang.
India's tender is a key demand signal that supports urea prices, while muted buying from Brazil and Europe limits upside, so the price outlook stays firm.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.