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India's urea tender closed December 19 with only 187,000 tonnes secured at a west coast L1 price of USD 369.75/tonne, and the east coast offer was withdrawn. Urea prices are rising globally, with Middle East and Brazil offers in the USD 370-380 range, while China restricts phosphate exports and DAP trades are limited.
A short Indian tender and firming global urea prices point to a bullish fertilizer outlook as India is expected to return to the market, raising input costs for grain and oilseed producers.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganJan 6, 2025After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
India's urea tender fell short (only 187,000 t secured, east coast offer withdrawn) while Middle East and Brazil offers firmed at USD 370-380, signaling tight global supply and supporting a price rise.
