
India's delayed urea purchase tender is pushing global urea prices lower across regions, with Indonesian, Thai and Egyptian offers falling. Phosphate prices are rising on declining Chinese exports, while potash edges up and ammonia stays stable.
Urea is a major nitrogen input, so falling tender-driven prices ease costs for corn growers in the near term. Tighter Chinese phosphate exports support DAP and MAP prices, which raises costs for phosphate-dependent crops.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.