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India's urea tender, closing November 11 with shipments by December 25, has failed to stimulate the market, and prices have softened across most regions outside Brazil. Egyptian FOB levels fell more than $25/t since early October, while Middle East FOB dropped about $10/t.
Phosphate prices are also under pressure as India steps back from the market.
Weak tender response and falling Middle East and Egyptian offers point to lower nitrogen fertiliser costs, though analysts expect India may still buy up to 2 million tonnes, which could limit further declines.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganNov 4, 2024After 81 past bearish trade events, UREA moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
