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India issued an 800,000 tonne urea import tender closing June 12 with shipment by July 17, and officials may raise the volume if prices are low enough. Urea prices kept falling ahead of the tender as Chinese export availability rose and Russian product sat in Baltic ports.
Traders expected offers to fall toward the high-$200s per tonne.
A large Indian tender gives buyers a near-term outlet for surplus supply, but heavy Chinese and Russian availability should pull the clearing price lower. Lower urea costs are bearish for fertilizer input costs for feed-grain producers.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganJun 4, 2023After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rising Chinese export availability and Russian product stuck in Baltic ports pressured prices ahead of the India tender, though the announcement came after the window ended on June 2.
