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Urea prices in the US NOLA market fell about $30/short ton as buyers awaited the delayed India tender. February barge values were $38/short ton below the mid-month peak.
Middle Eastern producers held off offering, with the last spot price cited at $437/tonne FOB ex-Qatar, while phosphate prices were expected to fall as Chinese exports resume.
The delayed India tender removes a key source of demand and pushes urea prices lower. Expected Chinese phosphate exports point to softer DAP prices, while potash is firm on demand.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganFeb 24, 2025After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
