
India's urea imports fell 14% and DAP and urea import prices declined from their August-high levels, while urea sales rose 1.8% and DAP sales rose 12.7% in April to August. Government fertilizer subsidy spending was nearly 60% of budget by August.
Lower Indian import prices and softer demand signal easing global nitrogen and phosphate prices, which reduces input costs for grain and feed production.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Falling DAP import prices from August highs and weaker India urea imports point to easing global demand and price pressure, which is consistent with DAP weakness.