
India's urea imports fell 21.3% in 2023 to 7.41 million tonnes, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Domestic production rose 13.4% to 31.11 million tonnes.
A fifth plant, Talcher Fertilisers, is expected to start in September 2024 with 3.85 million tonnes of annual capacity.
Lower Indian import demand reduces pressure on global urea supply, which is bearish for international prices. The new Talcher plant would further cut import needs later in 2024.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.