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Urea prices remain volatile after Middle East disruptions, with Egyptian plants running at 50-60% capacity and Iranian production halted. Recent Southeast Asian tenders cleared at around USD 452-470/tonne FOB, and NOLA prices have fallen in the off-season.
Tight Middle East supply and firm tender prices support international urea values, although the US off-season softness limits the upside.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.