
Offers in the latest RCF Indian urea import tender fell short of producer price ideas, with the lowest offers in the high $230s/t cfr from Samsung. The tender covered 2.09m tonnes offered firm.
Attention now turns to whether China will return to the export market at fob values near the low-$220s.
Indian tender pricing sets a floor for global urea, and a Chinese return to exports would add supply and could pressure international urea values.
After 23 past neutral trade events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.0%), and +2.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.