European natural gas futures rose above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since 2022, jumping more than 5% to the highest since December 2022. The surge is driven by heating demand, low European storage and fears that the Iran war could further disrupt supplies.
Prices have more than tripled since before the conflict.
Higher European energy costs raise production and transport expenses for feed manufacturers and can shift fertilizer and feed input prices, supporting feed costs.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.