
US diesel prices have risen about 50% due to the US-Israeli war on Iran and Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, with the national average reaching $5.38 per gallon. Independent truckers face squeezed cash flow while flat freight demand persists.
Higher diesel costs raise feed delivery and freight expenses for buyers and may pressure trucking capacity. The price effect on feed commodities is indirect, mainly through logistics costs.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.