
The USDA projects India's 2025-26 wheat harvest at a record 115 million tonnes on record planting and favorable weather. The agency also expects India to keep its export ban despite improved domestic supplies, and it says high import duties will limit imports.
A record Indian crop and continued export restrictions point to ample Indian supply staying home, which keeps pressure on world wheat prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.