For markets, end to ECB rate cuts just got closer

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• May 29, 2026Dollar Faces Bigger Hit Than Euro If Fed, ECB Resume Rate Cuts -- Market Talk-0.2%
• Jun 15, 2023European markets live updates: ECB rate decision, Fed rate decision+0.9%
• Mar 6, 2025For markets, German fiscal splurge blurs ECB outlook+1.5%
• Sep 13, 2019Euro surges as ECB rate cut seems to mark last stimulus move | The National-0.3%
• Dec 14, 2023Euro-Dollar Closing On 1.10 As ECB Resists Rate Cut Bets+1.5%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Sep 20, 2024US Fed rate cuts: What does this mean for gold, equities, and emerging markets? | Julius Baer-0.2%
• Dec 1, 2023Gold hits record high on bets for March start to Fed rate cuts+0.3%
• Feb 29, 2024Rate cuts are a boon for metals markets…eventually | Oxford Economics-0.5%
• Dec 27, 2023Dollar hits 5-mth low against euro as Fed seen closer to rate cuts+0.7%
• Oct 1, 2025After The Rate Cut: Investing Beyond U.S. Markets+0.3%