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Kpler analysis says U.S. soybean exports to China are effectively shut out by the trade dispute, which has driven record South American soybean exports. Chinese crushing margins and South American crush margins have tightened as a result.
Analysts expect Brazilian soybean values to ease and U.S. prices to stay low to keep export demand.
Record South American export flows are shifting world soybean demand away from the U.S., keeping U.S. prices low while tighter crush margins weigh on meal and oil supply.
kpler.comMatt DarraghSep 16, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
