
China's soybean imports rose 14.9% year on year to 4.02 million tons in March, but came in well below analyst estimates of about 6.4 million tons. Shipments from Brazil were delayed by tighter phytosanitary checks after pesticide-coated beans and other contamination were found.
January-March imports fell 3.1%.
Weaker-than-expected Chinese arrivals reduce near-term crush demand, which is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal. Analysts expect imports to recover from April as Brazilian and US cargoes arrive, which may limit the downside.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.