S&P Global's survey of market participants forecasts China's 2023 soybean imports will rise 8.3% to 98 million tonnes. Drivers include improved crush margins, higher animal feed demand and restocking of state reserves of up to 7 million tonnes.
COVID-19 policy remains a source of uncertainty.
Stronger Chinese soybean imports would support global soybean demand and prices. Higher feed demand also supports soybean meal consumption.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.