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The 2025 OECD inventory shows that export restrictions on staple crops fell by nearly 50% between August 2024 and June 2025, after peaking in early 2024. India, Argentina and Russia removed several rice, maize, soybean and wheat measures during this period.
Fewer export curbs free up more supply for world markets, which weighs on prices for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans. The effect is gradual and reflects policy easing already under way.
oecd.orgSep 23, 2025After 100 past bearish policy events, RICE moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
