Brent crude rose to about $116 per barrel and WTI topped $103 after attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure raised fears of supply disruption. Crude is on track for a fourth straight monthly gain.
Higher crude lifts biofuel economics and feedstock demand for vegetable oils, while raising freight and input costs for feed producers.
After 654 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.6% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 624 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.2% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 109 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, PALMOIL moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.