
WTI settled at $103.41 a barrel on March 1, 2022, after trading above $106, as markets priced in the risk of Russian supply loss from sanctions. The IEA agreed to release 60 million barrels from global stockpiles, but the move failed to ease concerns.
Commodity prices posted their largest one-day gain since 2009, and the trade in Russian raw materials was seizing up.
Higher crude and diesel costs raise freight, fertilizer and processing expenses across the feed chain. Disrupted Russian exports of grains and energy also tighten global supply and support feed commodity prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.