
Soybean futures fell 1.2% on March 27, 2026 to $11.75 1/2 a bushel after the EPA finalized 2026-27 renewable fuel obligations, which were widely expected. The rule requires biodiesel and renewable diesel volumes to rise over 60% from 2025, and it halves RINs for foreign feedstocks starting in 2028.
Higher biofuel mandates support soybean oil and crush demand over time, but the expected rule produced a sell-the-news reaction, and the foreign-feedstock RIN cut limits the bullish effect.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.